11–12 Jun 2026 Annual Conference
Stockholm University
Europe/Stockholm timezone

Peace as Stalemate: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Forever Missions and the Strategic Logic of Frozen Peace

12 Jun 2026, 14:30
10m
Stockholm University

Stockholm University

Frescativägen, 114 19 Stockholm, Sweden
Paper Abstract (Closed Panels) Regional Security in the Balkans Regional Security in the Balkans

Speaker

Dr SENADA ŠELO ŠABIĆ (Institute for Development and International Relations, Zagreb, Croatia)

Description

More than three decades after the Dayton Peace Agreement, Bosnia and Herzegovina remains subject to a continuous international military presence and extensive external governance, yet without achieving political stability or institutional consolidation. This paper examines Bosnia as a paradigmatic case of forever missions and frozen peace: interventions that successfully prevent renewed violence while entrenching political stalemate.
Building on theories of prolonged military intervention, conflict management, and institutional lock-in, the paper argues that the Dayton framework transformed peacekeeping from a temporary stabilisation mechanism into a permanent substitute for political settlement. While empirically centred on Bosnia and Herzegovina, the analysis situates the case within a broader universe of long-term interventions – including Kosovo, Cyprus, and Lebanon – where external military presence sustains stability without resolving underlying political conflict.
The paper shows how Dayton institutionalised ethnic vetoes, fragmented authority, and international oversight, producing a condition of managed instability in which peace persists but sovereignty and democratic accountability remain suspended. International military presence, while effective in preventing violence, has thus become structurally necessary precisely because political settlement remains incomplete.
Addressing a central but underexplored question in the literature – how long-standing interventions might move beyond stalemate without triggering renewed conflict – the paper identifies the strategic trade-offs that transform peacekeeping into conflict management. It concludes by reflecting on what political recalibration would be required to shift from frozen peace toward genuine settlement, and what the Bosnian case reveals about the limits of military intervention as a tool of political transformation.

If you are submitting an Open Panel proposal, have you included all four abstracts in attachment? No, I am submitting a Closed Panel abstract
Would you like to be considered for travel funding through the NetSec COST Action? No
Are you a member of the NetSec Management Committee? Yes
What discipline or branch of humanities or social sciences do you identify yourself with? Political and Social Sciences
Which of the following best describes your stage of the career? Full Professor
In which country is your home institution? Croatia
What is your gender? Female

Author

Dr SENADA ŠELO ŠABIĆ (Institute for Development and International Relations, Zagreb, Croatia)

Presentation materials

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