Description
Many observers believe that Special Operations Forces (SOF) and special operations have been relegated to the margins by the return of deterrence and defence as the dominant military purpose for the militaries of European small states. SOF may find its niche within counter-hybrid warfare, as a flexible response unit to strategic shocks in the Global South, or provide the joint force with valuable, but not indispensable, intelligence based on special reconnaissance. While accepting that conventional and nuclear forces are the bedrock of deterrence and defence, this paper aims to explore how European small-state SOF units may contribute to deterrence posture and, ultimately, to conventional defence. Recognising that SOF should conduct only operations that create operational or strategic effects, the analysis departs from deterrence theory to develop a method for identifying how SOF may be utilised to create the most outsized deterrence effects. Based on empirical examples from the Russian force posture in the Baltic Sea, the analysis provides concrete examples of how special operations may threaten Russian vulnerabilities and create operational and strategic dilemmas, thereby increasing the cost of aggression and lowering the probability of Russian success. The paper argues that the value of European small state SOF will increase if the US pivot towards the Americas and the Indo-Pacific region results in US airpower, intelligence, and targeting capabilities declining in Europe. To compensate for the lopsided conventional balance, the ability to conduct special operations targeting key nodes in Russian A2/AD bubbles, to reduce the Russian navy's freedom of manoeuvre, and to organise stay-behind networks to target Russian targets in the deep becomes a much more valuable addition to the deterrence effect of the joint forces. Moreover, the paper argues that European SOF should develop its deterrence communication to blend overt and covert activities, creating doubt and imposing dilemmas on Russian decision-makers.