Speaker
Description
Economic and political inequalities between ethnic groups have been recently shown as important factors that, in many contexts, can contribute to violent conflicts in most parts of the world. While the empirical picture is complex, the existing studies focus narrowly on armed conflict as a main outcome of interest, overlooking broader forms of state fragility that may precede, accompany, or persist beyond violence. This paper shifts the focus from conflict onset to state fragility and examines how different forms of horizontal ethnic inequality shape countries’ transitions into and out of fragile states.
First, I estimate transition probabilities across fragility states for more than 170 countries over the period 1995–2024, using the Constellations of State Fragility framework to capture multidimensional and dynamic changes in state capacity, authority, and legitimacy. Second, I examine how ethnic power-sharing institutions, as measured by the IDC dataset, influence these fragility transitions.
Theoretically, the study builds on horizontal inequality and power-sharing frameworks, emphasizing fragility as a dynamic process rather than a static condition. Empirically, the analysis combines transition modeling with cross-country panel data methods. By focusing on fragility transitions rather than conflict alone, this research contributes to more precise measurement and offers policy-relevant insights for early prevention and inclusive governance strategies in fragile contexts.
| If you are submitting an Open Panel proposal, have you included all four abstracts in attachment? | No, I am submitting a Closed Panel abstract |
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| Would you like to be considered for travel funding through the NetSec COST Action? | Yes |
| Are you a member of the NetSec Management Committee? | No |
| What discipline or branch of humanities or social sciences do you identify yourself with? | Political Economy |
| Which of the following best describes your stage of the career? | PhD Candidate |
| In which country is your home institution? | The Netherlands |
| What is your gender? | Female |