11–12 Jun 2026 Annual Conference
Stockholm University
Europe/Stockholm timezone

Anticipated Failure: Why States Go to War Un(der)prepared

11 Jun 2026, 16:10
10m
Stockholm University

Stockholm University

Frescativägen, 114 19 Stockholm, Sweden
Paper Abstract (Closed Panels) War and Strategy 1 Conceptualizing Military Strategy: From Planning to War

Speaker

Mariya Grinberg (MIT)

Description

Why do states engage in wars for which they are un(der)prepared? Specifically, why do states enter wars when they have good reason to expect that they will not be able to achieve their strategic objectives with their chosen war plans? To understand why states would go to war with flawed plans, we need to know two things: (1) what options to modify the flawed initial war plan were available, and (2) how states pick among their available options. I argue that civilian-military buck-passing restricts the options states have to modify their war plans. Furthermore, the limits on a state’s latent power and the extent of its actualized military power affects how the state selects among their restricted options. These arguments are illustrated through an examination of German war planning in World War II. Germany revised their war plans to fix expected flaws for Fall Gelb, but went to war with a plan known to be flawed in Operation Barbarossa.

If you are submitting an Open Panel proposal, have you included all four abstracts in attachment? No, I am submitting a Closed Panel abstract
Would you like to be considered for travel funding through the NetSec COST Action? Yes
Are you a member of the NetSec Management Committee? No
What discipline or branch of humanities or social sciences do you identify yourself with? Political Science
Which of the following best describes your stage of the career? Assistant Professor
In which country is your home institution? USA
What is your gender? Female

Author

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