11–12 Jun 2026 Annual Conference
Stockholm University
Europe/Stockholm timezone

Explaining Heterogeneity in Public Support for Collective Defense in NATO: Evidence from a Cross - National Survey of Allied Countries

12 Jun 2026, 16:00
10m
Stockholm University

Stockholm University

Frescativägen, 114 19 Stockholm, Sweden
Paper Abstract (Closed Panels) War and Strategy 2 War & Strategy: Strategic Deterrence under Duress

Speaker

Isabelle Haynes (Charles University)

Description

The deteriorating European security environment underscores the continuing relevance of NATO’s collective defence commitments. Since NATO is a military alliance comprising 32 electoral democracies, the commitment to defend any member relies on the domestic politics of its members. For these commitments to be credible, the alliance requires domestic political consensus and public support for defending allies that become targets of external aggression. However, NATO’s annual surveys reveal striking cross-national heterogeneity among allied states in public willingness to honour their collective defence commitments under Article 5. Despite the increased interest in examining the microfoundations of alliance politics, we still lack systematic explanations for why the publics in some member states are more hesitant to defend allies than in others. To address this important gap, we will analyse data from a unique multi-year survey conducted on nationally representative samples across all NATO countries. Using multilevel statistical modelling, our study will provide the first evidence on country- and individual-level factors that explain the large cross-national variation in public views on collective defence. Our findings will contribute to scholarly debates on the role of public opinion in military alliances and the pressing policy discussions about NATO’s cohesion and credibility.

If you are submitting an Open Panel proposal, have you included all four abstracts in attachment? No, I am submitting a Closed Panel abstract
Would you like to be considered for travel funding through the NetSec COST Action? Yes
Are you a member of the NetSec Management Committee? No
What discipline or branch of humanities or social sciences do you identify yourself with? International Security
Which of the following best describes your stage of the career? PhD Candidate
In which country is your home institution? Czechia
What is your gender? Female

Authors

Isabelle Haynes (Charles University) Dr Ondrej Rosendorf (Charles University) Michal Smetana (Peace Research Center Prague / Charles University)

Presentation materials

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