Speaker
Description
Deterrence is conventionally understood as the prevention of unwanted actions through the threat of military retaliation or economic punishment. This paper argues that such a conception is increasingly insufficient for explaining how influence and restraint operate in contemporary strategic competition. Drawing on debates in deterrence theory, grand strategy, and soft power, the paper advances the concept of soft power as deterrence: a non-kinetic strategic mechanism through which states shape the alignment choices of partners and raise the political, reputational, and institutional costs of defection without recourse to coercion.
The argument is developed through an analysis of U.S. and Chinese competition for influence in Thailand, a strategically significant middle power that has long hedged between major actors. Rather than focusing on overt pressure or alliance commitments, the paper examines how credibility, institutional embeddedness, elite socialisation, educational exchange, and information environments function as deterrent mechanisms by structuring the strategic context in which alignment decisions are made. These practices do not compel compliance, but they condition behaviour by making certain strategic choices more costly or less credible over time.
Conceptually, the paper reframes soft power not as persuasion or attraction alone, but as a strategic instrument that operates by constraining the range of acceptable political action. Empirically, it shows how non-kinetic influence can stabilise cooperation, deter defection, and shape long-term strategic orientation even in the absence of formal alliances or explicit threats. The paper concludes by considering the implications of this framework for European security debates, particularly in relation to deterrence beyond the military domain, strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific, and the growing importance of legitimacy, trust, and institutional presence in contemporary grand strategy.
| If you are submitting an Open Panel proposal, have you included all four abstracts in attachment? | No, I am submitting a Closed Panel abstract |
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| Would you like to be considered for travel funding through the NetSec COST Action? | Yes |
| Are you a member of the NetSec Management Committee? | No |
| What discipline or branch of humanities or social sciences do you identify yourself with? | International Affairs |
| Which of the following best describes your stage of the career? | PhD Candidate |
| In which country is your home institution? | Thailand |
| What is your gender? | Male |