11–12 Jun 2026 Annual Conference
Stockholm University
Europe/Stockholm timezone

Disclosure and Duplicity: How Technology Influences International Competition

12 Jun 2026, 10:55
10m
Stockholm University

Stockholm University

Frescativägen, 114 19 Stockholm, Sweden

Speakers

Tristan Volpe (IFSH University of Hamburg / Naval Postgraduate School)Prof. Jane Vaynman (SAIS Johns Hopkins)

Description

How do states manage information when building military capabilities? Some weapons are developed openly while others are concealed within secret programs or disguised behind civilian cover. This article introduces arming strategy as a new dependent variable, arguing that two technology attributes shape the disclosure and deception choices critical to information management: fragility (ease of degrading military advantages upon exposure) and distinguishability (difficulty of separating military from civilian applications). Together, these variables generate four optimal strategies that maximize returns on military power while minimizing costs: reveal, conceal, obfuscate, or distort. Large-n qualitative analysis across the complete universe of modern military technologies provides strong support—most cases show states converging on predicted strategies. The results identify generalizable mechanisms linking technological characteristics to predictable information strategies across diverse historical contexts. The framework enables scholars and practitioners to assess how the features of emerging technologies will affect future international competition.

If you are submitting an Open Panel proposal, have you included all four abstracts in attachment? No, I am submitting a Closed Panel abstract
Would you like to be considered for travel funding through the NetSec COST Action? No
Are you a member of the NetSec Management Committee? No
What discipline or branch of humanities or social sciences do you identify yourself with? Political Science
Which of the following best describes your stage of the career? Associate Professor
In which country is your home institution? Germany / United States
What is your gender? Male

Authors

Tristan Volpe (IFSH University of Hamburg / Naval Postgraduate School) Prof. Jane Vaynman (SAIS Johns Hopkins)

Presentation materials

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