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Tobias Liebetrau (University of Copenhagen)11/06/2026, 10:45Digital Transformations 1Paper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Big tech companies authoritatively produce data, information, and knowledge about cybersecurity threats to individuals, businesses, and states. But how do they render international cybersecurity phenomena knowable? Through which practices, means, and devices is this knowledge generated? This paper argues that examining the epistemic infrastructural power of big tech companies addresses these...
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Yijun Xu (Free University of Berlin)11/06/2026, 10:45
Recent debates in peacebuilding have moved beyond the liberal peace paradigm to emphasize plural, locally grounded understandings of peace. However, despite this “local turn,” the field still lacks systematic tools for conceptualizing and comparing diverse visions of peace across actors and contexts. This article addresses this gap by proposing a new conceptual framework - the peace cube - as...
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Moritz Weiss (LMU Munich)11/06/2026, 10:55Digital Transformations 1Paper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Digital technologies have become deeply entangled with the fabric of contemporary societies. Data infrastructures and cybersecurity practices underpin not only economic activity but also state authority and national security. This growing entanglement gives rise to a central question: how are states reorganizing their authority structures and cybersecurity policies, when digital...
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Saurav Narain (Leiden University)11/06/2026, 10:55
Scholarly attention to the convergence between international conflict management and counterterrorism has expanded significantly, though with an implicit interpretation of the ‘use of force’ logic, and an emphasis on UN peacekeeping’s downsizing of protection and human rights norms in engagement with the concept (Moe, 2021; Geis and Moe, 2023). Furthermore, terrorism-related violence is on an...
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Barbora Valockova (National University of Singapore), Ms Mae Chow (National University of Singapore)11/06/2026, 11:05Digital Transformations 1Paper Abstract (Closed Panels)
How do small and middle powers preserve autonomy amid great-power competition in critical digital infrastructure? This paper addresses this foundational question in International Relations by examining Southeast Asian states' navigation of US-China rivalry in submarine cable governance. Drawing on semi-structured interviews and comparative case analysis of Singapore, Vietnam, and Indonesia, we...
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Ilker Kalin (Stockholm University)11/06/2026, 11:05
United Nations peacekeeping operations (PKOs) are inherently multinational and rely on coordination among national contingents with diverse military cultures, doctrines, and rules of engagement. While existing research shows that mission composition and prior in-mission experience shape peacekeeping effectiveness, we know far less about whether coordination begins before deployment. This paper...
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Mattia Sguazzini (University of Genova, Italy)11/06/2026, 11:15Digital Transformations 1Paper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Cybersecurity has become central to strategic competition and foreign policy, yet research has focused primarily on executive decision-making, military doctrines, and national cyber strategies, marginalising parliamentary roles in this securitised and technically complex domain. This paper examines how legislatures scrutinise cyber policy in democratic systems.
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Using the framework of... -
Marie Robin (Université Paris Panthéon-Assas)11/06/2026, 11:15
How do rebels deliver justice when they reach power? This contribution examines post-conflict justice choices in Syria following the political transition of December 2024, focusing on how the new leadership under Ahmad al-Sharaa needs to address widespread human rights violations
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committed during the al-Assad era. These violations include crimes perpetrated both by the former regime (chemical... -
Crystal Whetstone (Bilkent University)11/06/2026, 13:00Non-Traditional Security Challenges - GenderPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Non-traditional security challenges are on the rise due, in part, to a growing far-right that interlinks with cyber(in)security. This includes the phenomenon of tradwives, or so-called traditional wives, a growing global movement with origins in the west, who actively further male supremacism, militarism and other forms of violence, even as they are seen as silly and/or non-political. The...
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Tyler Bowen (United States Naval War College)11/06/2026, 13:00Military Technology 1Paper Abstract (Closed Panels)
How does China’s nuclear modernization affect U.S. nuclear strategy? What are the crisis bargaining and crisis stability implications of the emerging nuclear balance between the United States and China? How might the nuclear balance evolve over time? This paper addresses these questions. I argue that by building more hardened targets, China is imposing a damage-limitation tradeoff on the...
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Mr Tahir Azad (Department of Politics & IR, University of Reading, UK)11/06/2026, 13:10Military Technology 1Paper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Recent hypersonic weapon technology advances have changed military power, challenging conventional and nuclear warfare distinctions. Hypersonic glide vehicles and cruise missiles, promoted as precision, speed, and deterrence, are compressing decision-making timelines, circumventing missile-defence architectures, and blurring strategic stability-underpinning escalation thresholds. This paper...
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Jéssica da Costa Pereira (NOVA University of Lisbon - School of Social Sciences and Humanities)11/06/2026, 13:10Non-Traditional Security Challenges - GenderPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Forced migration is a phenomenon present in globalisation’s dynamics, as is the absence of women in the conceptualisation of the processes that shape the lives of citizens. At the intersection of these two realities, we aim to analyse female forced migration as a security issue, analysing the absence of gender in the definition of forced migrant by the United Nations. From a methodological...
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Anna Luisa Reinhardt (Sciences Po, Northern German Lutheran Church, Lithuanian Diakonija)11/06/2026, 13:20Non-Traditional Security Challenges - GenderPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Abstract
Lithuanian orphans sing patriotic songs at Šakiai Diakonija, my diaconal workplace, located just a 20-minute drive from the Russian border—and roughly 2 minutes for the medium-range missiles stationed in Kaliningrad. Recentring human security in the investigation of children’s lives at EU borders, this contribution offers valuable insights into **pre-conflict preventive...
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Jennifer Erickson11/06/2026, 13:20Military Technology 1Paper Abstract (Closed Panels)
The horrific physical, medical, and environmental effects of nuclear weapons underpin long-standing ideas about nuclear deterrence, as well as challenges to their legitimacy and legality. Yet while US planners anticipated the bomb’s immense physical destruction in Japan 1945, they paid little attention to its probable medical and environmental effects. Instead, it was news reports about...
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Teodora Stoicescu (National University of Political Studies and Public Administration)11/06/2026, 13:30Non-Traditional Security Challenges - GenderPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
This paper will focus on the gender-based violence during armed conflicts as a non-traditional security challenge that is affecting the post-conflict development, stability and any peacebuilding effort. The analysis will be situated within feminist studies and will focus on how post-conflict approaches towards policies, reconciliation and reparations need to address sexual violence and the...
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Samuel Seitz (University of Oxford)11/06/2026, 13:30Military Technology 1Paper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Arms control is traditionally conceptualized as a cooperative undertaking, reducing risk and obviating the need for wasteful expenditure. But arms control can also be employed for competitive ends, shaping competition in ways that asymmetrically advantage certain parties. While previous literature has identified individual examples of competitive arms control within certain cases, the full...
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Baptiste Alloui-Cros (Oxford University), Giles Moon (Oxford University)11/06/2026, 14:20
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Emma Rosengren (Stockholm University)11/06/2026, 14:20
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Mr Martijn Rouvroije (Netherlands Defence Academy - Faculty of Military Sciences), Martijn Rouvroije (Netherlands Faculty of Military Sciences)11/06/2026, 14:30
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Prof. Matthew Evangelista (Cornell University)11/06/2026, 14:30
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Benoît Pelopidas (Sciences Po)11/06/2026, 14:40
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Andro Mathewson (KCL), Natalia Henry (UPenn)11/06/2026, 14:40
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july decarpentrie (fhs)11/06/2026, 14:50
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Troels Burchall Henningsen (Royal Danish Defence University)11/06/2026, 14:50
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439. Fortifying the Eastern Flank: Leveraging Historical Lessons to Create Effective Defence SystemsAlexander Lanoszka, Dr Michael Hunzeker (George Mason University)11/06/2026, 16:00War and Strategy 1Paper Abstract (Closed Panels)
In early 2024, Poland and the three Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania announced plans to put up fortifications along their eastern frontier. Yet one lesson that analysts might draw from contemporary experience is that defensive systems of the sort planned for parts of NATO’s so-called Eastern Flank have little to no utility except for sapping precious resources that could be...
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Ms Dunia Baban (Stockholm University), Saman Omar (College of Humanity, University of Duhok, Kurdistan Region of Iraq)11/06/2026, 16:00Non-Traditional Security Challenges - ClimatePaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
The 2018 UN GEO-6 report classified Iraq 5th most climate vulnerable globally and the UN have further warned that by 2035, Iraq may meet only 15% of its total water demand if current severe water crises trends persist. Equally, as latest as September 2025, IOM recorded that 186.00 Iraqi people are displaced due to water scarcity. In 2025, the Iraqi parliament, admitted that massive rural water...
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Mariya Grinberg (MIT)11/06/2026, 16:10War and Strategy 1Paper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Why do states engage in wars for which they are un(der)prepared? Specifically, why do states enter wars when they have good reason to expect that they will not be able to achieve their strategic objectives with their chosen war plans? To understand why states would go to war with flawed plans, we need to know two things: (1) what options to modify the flawed initial war plan were available,...
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Elisabeth Saar (Hamburg University)11/06/2026, 16:10Non-Traditional Security Challenges - ClimatePaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
This paper examines how uranium mining in East Germany - embedded in the geopolitical dynamics of the Cold War - produced specific nuclear cultures that continue to shape the present. Framing the management of nuclear legacies as a local and global security issue, the paper highlights how uranium extraction and its afterlives intersect with environmental, health, and societal security concerns...
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Cornel Racoveanu (National University of Political Studies and Public Administration Bucharest)11/06/2026, 16:20Non-Traditional Security Challenges - ClimatePaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Climate change is increasingly recognized as a critical non-traditional security challenge, reshaping threat perceptions and governance priorities across Europe. Beyond its direct environmental and socio-economic impacts, climate change also acts as a threat multiplier by facilitating the expansion of environmental crime, including illegal logging, wildlife trafficking, waste trafficking, and...
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Dr Samuel Zilincik (Royal Danish Defence College)11/06/2026, 16:20War and Strategy 1Paper Abstract (Closed Panels)
NATO’s new operational concept Multi-Domain Operations (MDO) assumes combining various military and non-military tools is essential and beneficial for winning future wars. In this article, we offer a historical perspective to enunciate the MDO’s underlying philosophy. Specifically, we argue that combining tools is not inherently necessary nor beneficial, and that prioritisation of one tool can...
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Eliza Gheorghe (Bilkent University)11/06/2026, 16:30Non-Traditional Security Challenges - ClimatePaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Nuclear security research treats states as the primary managers of nuclear and radiological risk, with non-state actors as key challengers. This overlooks de facto states - separatist polities that exercise territorial authority without broad recognition. We argue that de facto states create zones of authority without recognised responsibility, weakening regulatory control while remaining...
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Sara Russo (Centre for High Defence Studies (CASD))11/06/2026, 16:30War and Strategy 1Paper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Strategic competition is increasingly unfolding below the threshold of armed conflict, where influence over perception, legitimacy, and coordination might determine the outcomes without the use of force. While widely acknowledged, influence is still treated as an auxiliary component of military and political strategy, framed through information operations or psychological warfare. ...
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Nikolaos Tzifakis (University of the Peloponnese)12/06/2026, 09:00
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Marko Kovačević (University of Belgrade), Milan Varda (University of Belgrade), Dr Tijana Rečević Krstić (University of Belgrade)12/06/2026, 09:10
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Kurt Bassuener (Democratization Policy Council, Sarajevo)12/06/2026, 09:20
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Alexandra Prodromidou ((York Europe Campus, Business School, Southeast European Research Centre (SEERC)), Faye Ververidou (York Europe Campus, Business School, Southeast European Research Centre (SEERC)), Filip Ejdus (University of Belgrade), Sonja Stojanovic Gajic (Center for Advanced Studies Southeast Europe, the University of Rijeka and the Centre for International Security of the Faculty of Political Science, the University of Belgrade3)12/06/2026, 09:30
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Gil Baram (UC Berkeley and Bar Ilan University)12/06/2026, 10:45Digital Transformations 2Paper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Digital technologies are entangling cyber risk, digital infrastructure, and governance. This paper argues that AI-enabled cybercrime is best understood as a transformation of the cybercrime ecosystem rather than merely as a set of new technical tactics. It draws on UC Berkeley’s “AI-Enabled Cybercrime: Exploring Risks, Building Awareness, and Guiding Policy Responses” initiative, supported by...
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Nicolas Krieger (Technical University of Munich)12/06/2026, 10:45Military Technology 2Paper Abstract (Closed Panels)
How do ideas about military technology become politically influential? This paper sets out to examines how competing visions of military technology emerge, gain dominance, and shape German defence planning. It focuses on public debates surrounding ‘classic’ (armour, artillery, etc.) and innovative military technologies (autonomous weapon systems, AI targeting, UAS/UGV, etc.), and analyses...
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Tristan Volpe (IFSH University of Hamburg / Naval Postgraduate School), Prof. Jane Vaynman (SAIS Johns Hopkins)12/06/2026, 10:55Military Technology 2Paper Abstract (Closed Panels)
How do states manage information when building military capabilities? Some weapons are developed openly while others are concealed within secret programs or disguised behind civilian cover. This article introduces arming strategy as a new dependent variable, arguing that two technology attributes shape the disclosure and deception choices critical to information management: fragility (ease of...
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Clara Jammot12/06/2026, 10:55Digital Transformations 2Paper Abstract (Closed Panels)
While the relationship between far-right extremism, libertarianism, and neoliberalism has long been established, algorithmic recommendation as well as the lucrative professionalisation of content creation are leading platforms like TikTok to impact how financial (in)security feeds into the far-right’s proliferation. The rise in influencers promoting an individualistic ‘entrepreneurial mindset’...
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Sarah Backman (Försvarshögskolan)12/06/2026, 11:05Digital Transformations 2Paper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Cybersecurity in national and international security is frequently discussed in an existential register. However, most cybersecurity activities are normal and routine, including diverse practices of cyber risk management. The intricacies of cyber risk and its connection to security and threat politics have received surprisingly little attention in the cyber politics literature. This article...
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Kristen Harkness (University of St. Andrews), Marc DeVore (University of St. Andrews)12/06/2026, 11:05Military Technology 2Paper Abstract (Closed Panels)
The Russo-Ukrainian War stands out as the first war within decades that drove states to mobilize their industrial and innovative potential. Overwhelmingly, wars since 1945 have either been short or have been fought at lower levels of intensity. As such, they were won or lost based on the equipment already in stock or that could be procured through peacetime procedures. Since 2022, Russia and...
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Alexandra Brankova (Swedish Defence University)12/06/2026, 11:15Digital Transformations 2Paper Abstract (Closed Panels)
The paper explores how Russian geopolitical narratives about the national self and the enemy are constructed and amplified on VKontakte (VK) before and after the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. VK is the largest social media platform in the Russian Federation, and it is being gradually integrated into a government-led multipurpose application, Max (like WeChat in China)....
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Tim Thies (Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg)12/06/2026, 11:15Military Technology 2Paper Abstract (Closed Panels)
While the role of armaments, and in particular forward-deployed military forces, as signals of reassurance is well-established in the scholarly literature, existing research has not explored when and why armaments may worry allies. In this paper, I consider disagreements between allies about the right armaments by the patron for the defense of a client as symptoms of defense misalignment,...
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Prof. Daniela Mechkaroska (University of Information Science and Technology “St. Paul the Apostle”, Ohrid, N.Macedonia)12/06/2026, 13:00
Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing, combined with IoT systems through digital interconnection, create virtual environments that merge with physical spaces. The new operational capabilities that these transformations bring to European digital ecosystems create security challenges, governance issues and societal concerns. Existing research on AI-based security solutions...
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Linde Desmaele (Leiden University)12/06/2026, 13:00
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Christopher David LaRoche (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Central European University)12/06/2026, 13:10
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Dr Gürkan Gür (Zurich University of Applied Sciences ZHAW)12/06/2026, 13:10
This contribution presents and discusses quantum-resilient Space–Aerial–Terrestrial Networks (SATIN) as a crucial enabler of European future-proof digital sovereignty, strengthening secure communications, resilient critical infrastructure, and reinforcing Europe’s leadership across satellite, drone, and terrestrial networking domains.
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Jacklyn Majnemer (LSE)12/06/2026, 13:20
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Vladyslav Vilihura12/06/2026, 13:25
The ongoing armed conflict in Ukraine has served as an unprecedented stress test for
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national cybersecurity frameworks, exposing both the capabilities and limitations of
existing cyber defence architectures under sustained adversarial pressure. This
paper examines two interrelated dimensions of cybersecurity governance that have
gained acute relevance in the context of European security:... -
Alexander Sorg (Hertie School)12/06/2026, 13:30
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Lorenz Sommer (Geschwister-Scholl-Institute for Political Science, LMU Munich)12/06/2026, 13:35
Cyberspace is a new domain of state security competition that differs from the conventional and nuclear realms, most notably because states are constantly engaged in cyberspace operations below the threshold of armed attacks. This inclines many scholars to use new approaches, both theoretically and empirically, to measure and explain cyber state behaviour. This paper argues that classical...
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Kaija Schilde (Boston University)12/06/2026, 14:20Military TransformationPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
This paper challenges the conventional assumption that EU political development lacks a bellicist foundation. I argue that external threats have been a necessary condition driving EU integration throughout its history, and that the EU can be understood as a 21st century regulatory security state. Drawing on original archival research from the Jean Monnet archives, I demonstrate that European...
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Dr Kire Babanoski (Faculty of Security - Skopje, University "St. Kliment Ohridski" Bitola, North Macedonia)12/06/2026, 14:20
Criminal groups in the Western Balkans are influential non-state actors which informally regulate illegal markets, provide protection, and establish strategic partnerships with political and economic elites. They operate outside, alongside, and sometimes within state structures, and often through robust cross-border networks. They are quite flexible and adapt quickly to the evolving practices...
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Jordan Becker (United States Military Academy, West Point, Brussels School of Governance, Ecole de Guerre (IHEDN, IRSEM))12/06/2026, 14:30Military TransformationPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Following the 2014 Russian invasion of Ukraine and annexation of Crimea, most research examining NATO's response has focused on member state pledges to increase defense spending to at least two percent of GDP. Far less attention has been paid to whether and how NATO members' \textit{military capabilities}--the outputs of defense investment--changed in response to threats from Russia. We...
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Dr SENADA ŠELO ŠABIĆ (Institute for Development and International Relations, Zagreb, Croatia)12/06/2026, 14:30
More than three decades after the Dayton Peace Agreement, Bosnia and Herzegovina remains subject to a continuous international military presence and extensive external governance, yet without achieving political stability or institutional consolidation. This paper examines Bosnia as a paradigmatic case of forever missions and frozen peace: interventions that successfully prevent renewed...
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Mr Dumitru-Catalin Vasile (National School of Political and Administrative Studies, Bucharest, Romania)12/06/2026, 14:40Military TransformationPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Modern military strategy is undergoing a paradigm shift, moving away from a "platform-centric" model defined by the capabilities of individual assets such as tanks, fighter jets, and carriers toward a "network-centric" model prioritizing connectivity, data fusion, and multi-domain integration. While the operational necessity of this transition is widely accepted, this paper argues that the...
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Dr SANDRA CVIKIĆ (Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar, Regional Center Vukovar)12/06/2026, 14:40
Drawing on the author's previous work, this paper offers insight into the implementation of transitional justice policies in the Western Balkans after the violent wars that accompanied the dissolution of socialist Yugoslavia, with a focus on the former Yugoslav state of Serbia. This qualitative sociological analysis explores the paradoxical effects of the transitional justice process on...
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Prof. Kenan Hodžić (Assistant Professor)12/06/2026, 14:50
Bosnia and Herzegovina occupies a critical position in the security architecture of the Western Balkans, serving as a nexus of domestic vulnerabilities, regional dynamics, and broader European security concerns. This paper employs the multi-level security framework (Buzan, Wæver & de Wilde, 1998) to examine the intersection of internal political fragmentation, institutional capacity, and...
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Vasiliki Plessia Aravani (Diplomatische Academie Wien, University of Vienna)12/06/2026, 14:50Military TransformationPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
The literature on military diffusion has traditionally treated alliances as transmission paths through which nationally developed military technologies are disseminated among allies. In this view, NATO is exclusively portrayed as a forum for standardization and doctrinal coordination rather than also a site of military innovation. This paper revisits this understanding by examining...
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SANDRA CVIKIĆ (Institute of Social Sciences Ivo Pilar, Regional Center Vukovar)12/06/2026, 15:00
Drawing on the author's previous work, this paper offers insight into the implementation of transitional justice policies in the Western Balkans after the violent wars that accompanied the dissolution of socialist Yugoslavia, with a focus on the former Yugoslav state of Serbia. This qualitative sociological analysis explores the paradoxical effects of the transitional justice process on...
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Rusudan Zabakhidze (Swedish Defence University)12/06/2026, 16:00
This paper explores how the resurgence of interstate war in Europe following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has reconfigured relations between defence and society, with particular attention to the role of voluntary pro-defence organisations in security governance. Over the past decade, states historically alert to Russian imperialism have increasingly embraced comprehensive defence...
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Isabelle Haynes (Charles University)12/06/2026, 16:00
The deteriorating European security environment underscores the continuing relevance of NATO’s collective defence commitments. Since NATO is a military alliance comprising 32 electoral democracies, the commitment to defend any member relies on the domestic politics of its members. For these commitments to be credible, the alliance requires domestic political consensus and public support for...
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Pieter Zhao (Erasmus University Rotterdam)12/06/2026, 16:10
This paper examines the re-emergence of private maritime security companies (PMSCs) in the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, situating their rise within both recent developments in maritime security and a broader historical context. Since the early 2000s, PMSCs have become a visible feature of global shipping security, particularly in response to piracy and other low-intensity...
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Wendy He (S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU))12/06/2026, 16:10
Conventional wisdom holds that states with superior capabilities, clear interests, and strong reputations issue more credible threats, while weaker states struggle to convince. Yet strong states sometimes fail to convince while weaker states occasionally succeed. Why? I argue that credibility is first formed within internal deliberations, shaped by how leaders interact with their advisors...
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Mark Rhinard (Stockholm University), Dr Niklas Bremberg12/06/2026, 16:20
Recent debates on transatlantic security cooperation widely assume that renewed political tensions -- most notably driven by the Trump II administration -- have undermined cooperation between NATO and the European Union. Such claims typically rest on assessments of strategic alignment at the political level. This paper argues that these assessments risk running ahead of what is currently known...
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Mia Abdić12/06/2026, 16:20
Border securitisation, externalisation, and the criminalisation of humanitarian assistance in migration contexts have become increasingly prominent features of European migration governance. This paper explores the phenomenon of the criminalisation of solidarity through a comparative overview of these practices in France, Italy, Greece, and Spain, alongside the liminal case of Serbia as a...
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360. Soft Power as Deterrence: Non-Kinetic Strategy and Alignment Politics in U.S.–China CompetitionMr Joseph Black (Chiang Mai University, King's College London)12/06/2026, 16:30
Deterrence is conventionally understood as the prevention of unwanted actions through the threat of military retaliation or economic punishment. This paper argues that such a conception is increasingly insufficient for explaining how influence and restraint operate in contemporary strategic competition. Drawing on debates in deterrence theory, grand strategy, and soft power, the paper advances...
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Johannes Lucht (ETH Zurich)12/06/2026, 16:30
Negotiations are essential to ending armed conflict, yet we know surprisingly little about how violence evolves during the negotiation process itself. While existing research demonstrates that negotiations are essential for ending armed conflicts, most studies treat “negotiations” as a single event rather than a dynamic, multi-round process. This paper examines how armed groups behave across...
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Lucian Bumeder (IFSH)12/06/2026, 18:00
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Archishman Ray Goswami (DPhil International Relations, University of Oxford)12/06/2026, 18:00
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Gulzhan Asylbek kyzy (UNU-MERIT)12/06/2026, 18:00
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Fiona Galvis12/06/2026, 18:00
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Lucian Bumeder (IFSH)
The emergence of a “third nuclear age” has intensified scholarly attention on how non-nuclear strategic weapons affect nuclear postures under conditions of renewed great-power rivalry. As most research focuses on nuclear-armed states, there remains a gap in understanding how regional powers seek to obtain deterrence benefits through their conventional missile postures and how threat...
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Cornelia Čekal (Central European University)Reserve ListPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the European Union (EU) has proposed and launched an ambitious defence industrial agenda. The European Commission, historically seen as a technocratic actor, has been a driving force in proposing new regulatory and strategic initiatives in this previously closed-off policy sector. This development raises the question of how the Commission, and EU...
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Patrick Finnegan (University of Lincoln)Reserve ListPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
This research aims to develop wargaming capabilities enhanced by artificial intelligence, focused on the implementation of Second Order Theory of Mind (SO ToM). Achieving this objective will further the defence community's pursuit of ‘Decision Advantage’, allowing wargamers to understand how they are being understood by opponents in real time. This research is an interdisciplinary effort...
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Prof. Jasmin Ahić (Dean Faculty of Criminal Justice and Security Studies), Kenan Hodžić (University of Sarajevo - Lecturer)Reserve ListPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Bosnia and Herzegovina occupies a critical position in the security architecture of the Western Balkans, serving as a nexus of domestic vulnerabilities, regional dynamics, and broader European security concerns. This paper employs the multi-level security framework (Buzan, Wæver & de Wilde, 1998) to examine the intersection of internal political fragmentation, institutional capacity, and...
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Ms ISABELLA NEUMANN (University of Coimbra)Reserve ListPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
This paper confronts a core paradox in contemporary security governance: While cyberspace disperses technical knowledge across civilian agencies, intelligence services, and the private sector, fracturing the military's epistemic centrality, EU military structures have not retreated but have recalibrated their role.
Through an analysis of the EU’s CSDP architecture, this research argues that...
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Marius Ghincea (European University Institute)Reserve ListPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Why have France and Germany adopted divergent – and shifting – policies on disclosing their military aid to Ukraine? We argue that domestic politics, not international signaling or political culture, best explains this puzzle. We theorize that leaders use transparency as a legitimation tool to manage audience costs when their policy preferences diverge from a hawkish public. Conversely, when...
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Dr Alexander Sorg (Hertie School), Dr Christopher David LaRoche (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Central European University), Dr Jacklyn Majnemer (LSE), Dr Linde Desmaele (Leiden University), Dr Ludovica Castelli (Istituto Affari Internazionali)
Eight decades after their invention, nuclear weapons remain a defining feature of contemporary international politics. While much existing scholarship has focused on the policies or nuclear-armed states, this panel shifts attention to the often-overlooked role of non-nuclear allies within NATO. It advances the study of extended nuclear deterrence by treating NATO’s non-nuclear allies as...
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John Helferich (EISS)Reserve ListPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
European defence integration under the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) is often interpreted as a rational and functional response to shifts in the security environment. This article offers an alternative lens by suggesting that existing accounts have paid limited attention to how CSDP cooperation has also advanced in moments of ontological crisis that unsettle both the EU’s...
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Frank Kuhn (Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF))Reserve ListPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
In 2020, the United States deployed the W76 2 low-yield nuclear warhead on its ballistic missile submarines, marking a pivotal shift in a contentious, three decade Congressional debate over the role of low-yield nuclear weapons in U.S. nuclear policy. Congress first banned research and development on such weapons in 1993, partially repealed that prohibition in 2004, and then authorized an...
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Filip Ejdus (University of Belgrade), Prof. Nikolaos Tzifakis (University of the Peloponnese)
During the first several decades of the European project, the discourse of geopolitics stood in contrast to the spirit of European integration as a peace project and a civilian power. Although geopolitical discourse began to surface within the EU following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Rubicon was decisively crossed in 2019, when Ursula von der Leyen declared her intention to...
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Dr Dumitru Minzarari (Baltic Defence College)Reserve ListPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
How effective is NATO's deterrence posture in the Baltic region? Russia has been increasingly probing NATO reactions across the entirety of the Eastern Flank, normalising such incursions as part of its wider strategy of confrontation with NATO. Engaging with the foundations of deterrence theory, specifically the operative concepts of credibility and signalling of intent, the chapter argues...
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Mrs July Decarpentrie (Swedish Defence University)Reserve ListPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
French nuclear thinking reflects the aphorism “Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose,” which translates as “The more things change, the more they stay the same.” Although France’s nuclear strategy has evolved, the way the French think about nuclear deterrence remains anchored in a certain tradition. This thesis aims to show how this is possible. The research questions are: How has...
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Mr Krunoslav Štengl (Faculty of Political Science, University of Zagreb)
Methods of reflexive control constitute a sophisticated form of military deception (maskirovka) and a core element of Russian military and intelligence doctrine, as well as a key component of Russia’s security strategy and information warfare. Rather than relying on coercion, reflexive control targets the decision-making processes of an adversary by inducing the target to adopt motives and...
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Mitko Arnaudov (Institute of International Politics and Economics)Reserve ListPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Current international relations are facing with the chapter characterized with so-called war public discourses, as well as decision-making processes which are erasing the international infrastructure based on the rule of law. In such context, so-called big powers have adapted to realist thougths about the functioning of the international system, while small, especially weak states are still de...
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Archishman Ray Goswami (DPhil International Relations, University of Oxford)
This study determines strategic interest’s impact on the character of interstate intelligence diplomacy. Focused on clandestine diplomacy and intelligence liaison as specific variants, the study examines why the character of intelligence diplomacy deviates from anticipated trajectories when pursued as a tool of statecraft. It does so through three case studies: Israel’s clandestine diplomacies...
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Alex Neads (Durham University / EUI)Reserve ListPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Security assistance, or the provision of military training and advice to the armed forces of one country by those of another, has become a ubiquitous tool of foreign policy – if one with a rather chequered history. In recent years, the US military has developed an array of functionally specialised military organisations tasked with the provision of security assistance, ostensibly to improve...
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Gulzhan Asylbek kyzy (UNU-MERIT)
Economic and political inequalities between ethnic groups have been recently shown as important factors that, in many contexts, can contribute to violent conflicts in most parts of the world. While the empirical picture is complex, the existing studies focus narrowly on armed conflict as a main outcome of interest, overlooking broader forms of state fragility that may precede, accompany, or...
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Eugenio Lilli (UCD)Reserve ListPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
This article aims to explain Iran's increasingly assertive use of offensive cyber operations (OCOs) and their integration into its military strategy. It suggests that the upward trajectory of Iranian OCOs is best understood through strategic alignment—namely the convergence between Iran's cyber behavior and the logics of asymmetry, ambiguity, escalation control, and strategic depth which have...
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356. Technology and Labor Share in Defense: Technological Advancement and Capital-Labor SubstitutionJordan Becker (United States Military Academy, West Point, Brussels School of Governance, Ecole de Guerre (IHEDN, IRSEM))Reserve ListPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
How does the adoption of new military technologies affect the allocation of defense budgetary resources to capital and labor, respectively? There is a vast literature on causes and effects of the “labor share” in wider economies, but no work has yet tested the effects of technology adaptation on the allocation of defense budgets to their different components: equipment, personnel, operating &...
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Anna Seliverstova (Linnaeus University)Reserve ListPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Digital platforms have become central arenas of contemporary geopolitical competition, blurring the boundaries between the virtual and the physical, the informational and the political. This paper examines Telegram as a key element of Russia's contemporary information warfare and influence operations, focusing on its role in shaping political discourse in Serbia. While Telegram has often been...
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Elisabetta Ginevra Iida (University of Padova)Reserve ListPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Since the end of the Cold War, international security has been guaranteed by the so-called Liberal International Order(Ikenberry 2011; Mearsheimer 2019). But its implementation has never been peaceful (Ikenberry 2010) and has always been subject to important contestations (Alcaro 2018). Adopting a constructivist framework (Wendt 1999), we consider the Liberal Order as a system made also by...
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Dr Pavlos Koktsidis (Anatolia American University of Greece)Reserve ListPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
This study investigates the geopolitical transition and power redistribution in the Middle East, with the primary objective of systematising knowledge about strategic shifts and realignments in the region. It explores 37 state and non-state actors across 194 distinct conflict dyads, aiming to uncover patterns of geopolitical alliances and rivalries from 2014 to 2020. The study identifies the...
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Dr Benoît Pelopidas (Sciences Po), Dr Emma Rosengren (Stockholm University), Dr Heljä Ossa (London School of Economics), Dr Matthew Evangelista (Cornell University), Thomas Fraise (University of Copenhagen/Sciences Po)
The changing European security environment has led to the diagnosis of a “deterrent deficit” on the continent. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, and the United States’ unpredictable - if not outright adversarial - behavior have overwhelmed many assumptions held by policymakers about European security. Europe is now faced with challenges coming from the world’s largest nuclear arsenal....
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Hannah-Sophie Weber (University of Oxford)Reserve ListPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
How do non-state cyber actors convert visibility into political leverage, and when does visibility become a liability that pushes them back into the shadows? This paper examines the Belarusian Cyber Partisans, a digital resistance movement that emerged after the Belarusian regime’s violent repression of a 2020 protest wave. I argue that a simple rise-and-fall in media attention cannot explain...
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Ms Yagnyashri Kodaru (Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich)Reserve ListPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
Most national defense industries face a dilemma between technological self-reliance and (inter)dependence. While indigenously building weapons increases self-reliance, it can come at the cost of economic and technical efficiency. Conversely, interdependence helps a state integrate into global innovation/production networks and potentially access the most advanced weapons, but forsakes...
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Fabio Duarte (Czech Technical University / Charles University)Reserve ListFull-length paper for the Best Paper Prize [max. 5.000 words]
The concepts of 'hybrid warfare' and 'hybrid threats' have expanded into a wide, heterogeneous set of typologies, primarily centred on instruments and actors. As the range of activities labelled “hybrid” continues to grow, existing approaches increasingly struggle to explain how diverse hybrid actions combine, interact, and generate systemic effects below the threshold of direct armed...
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Giles Moon (Oxford University), Mr Andro Mathewson (KCL), Mr Baptiste Alloui-Cros (Oxford University), Mr Martijn Rouvroije (Netherlands Faculty of Military Sciences), Ms Natalia Henry (UPenn), Dr Troels Burchall Henningsen (Royal Danish Defence University)
This panel will drop below the level of strategy and inter-state politics to examine the conduct of war itself. With conventional war in Europe now a reality for the first time in seventy-five years, and with a material risk of European involvement in further major wars, there is an urgent need for serious academic examination of warfare and how states, and other actors, conduct themselves on...
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Ida Maria Oma (Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies)Reserve ListPaper Abstract (Closed Panels)
This paper develops a typology of weak-actor deterrence communication, ranging from the extreme points of not properly applying deterrence as a strategy because clear communication of capabilities and resolve is lacking, to crystal-clear communication of red lines and the actions to be taken if these are crossed. In-between are approaches that leaves something to chance. The typology is based...
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Fiona Galvis
From the onset of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russian leaders have repeatedly issued thinly-veiled threats of nuclear weapons use, challenging long-standing international norms against nuclear coercion. This paper examines the evolution of Russian nuclear rhetoric during the war and analyzes the international community’s response to these threats. Drawing on both official and unofficial...
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